Initial Studies of an Objective Model to Forecast Achievable Airspace Flow Program Throughput from Current and Forecast Weather Information*

Airspace capacity constraints caused by adverse weather are a major driver for enhanced Traffic Flow Management (TFM) capabilities. One of the most prominent TFM initiatives introduced in recent years is the Airspace Flow Program (AFP) (Brennan, 2007). AFPs are used to plan and manage flights through airspace constrained by severe weather. Aircraft with filed flight plans through the AFP region have the option of rerouting to avoid that airspace or remaining on a route through the AFP region and enduring the assigned AFP delay. An AFP is considered an improvement in managing en route weather impacts over the previous practice of implementing Ground Delay Programs (GDP) at a few select airports in order to reduce en route airspace demand in a region. Moreover, an AFP does not unnecessarily delay flights to an airport that do not pass through the en route region of reduced capacity (Doble et al. 2006). There are eight predefined AFPs that have been developed to control air traffic demand in the Northeast region of the National Airspace System (NAS) – primarily arrivals to airports in the corridor from DC to NY to Boston when convective weather reduces en route airspace capacity. A review of AFP usage since its inception in 2006 shows that by far the most frequent AFPs used are FCAA05 and FCAA08 (Figure 1). For all predefined AFPs, including A05 and A08, arrival rate reduction guidelines have been developed through analysis of historical traffic data. An AFP operates as a strategic air traffic management tool, where “strategic” (i.e., 4 – 6 hour) Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) predictions (and other weather information